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Background

Guardrail Finance is both a financial intermediary for multifamily and commercial real estate loans and a Sponsor of real estate equity syndications.

🧭 Follow the Money: Where Real Estate Capital Is Flowing in the Southeast

This week, I wanted to synthesize what I saw from my 8-day trip to the Southeast where I toured markets and properties, and had meetings with experts in the area.

Atlanta: A Tale of Two Markets

Atlanta presents a contrasting real estate landscape, with challenges in its downtown core and growth in its close-in suburbs.

Downtown Core: Navigating Office Market Challenges

Downtown Atlanta's office market faces significant hurdles:

• High Vacancy Rates: The downtown office vacancy rate stands at 17.1%, higher than the metropolitan Atlanta average of 16.6% and the national average of 13.9% CoStar.
• Remote Work Impact: The shift towards remote work has led to increased vacancies, particularly in older, less desirable office buildings ajc.
• Revitalization Efforts: Initiatives like Georgia State University's $107 million campus renovation aim to rejuvenate the downtown area, enhancing its appeal to students and residents AP News.

Close-In Suburbs: Embracing Residential Growth

In contrast, Atlanta's and Savannah's close-in suburbs are experiencing robust residential growth:

• Population Influx: Areas like Bryan, Jackson, and Dawson counties are among the fastest-growing, with Bryan County seeing a 30.1% increase Axios.
• Housing Demand: The median home sale price in Atlanta reached $415,000 in November 2024, reflecting strong demand in suburban areas New York Post.
• Mixed-Use Developments: Projects like Serenbe's $1.7 billion expansion plan aim to create comprehensive communities with residential, commercial, and civic spaces Axios.

These trends highlight a shift in investment focus from the downtown core to the burgeoning suburbs, driven by changing work patterns and lifestyle preferences.

Columbia: Industrial Growth Anchored by Strategic Location

I was in Columbia to visit an industrial property. Columbia sits in a strategic location inland that connects the coast to major freeways in multiple States. Columbia's industrial sector is experiencing robust growth:

• Vacancy Rates: As of Q1 2025, the industrial vacancy rate rose slightly to 5.8%, reflecting a modest increase due to new supply entering the market.
• Development Activity: Over the past five years, the market expanded by 11.6%, adding approximately 7.9 million square feet, with significant contributions from submarkets like Cayce/West Columbia.
• Economic Outlook: Columbia's strategic location with direct access to major interstates and proximity to the Port of Charleston positions it favorably for future industrial demand.

These factors make Columbia an attractive destination for investors seeking stable returns in the industrial sector.

Greenville: Downtown Revitalization Driving Mixed-Use Developments

Greenville is not really something that I can talk about, it's more a city that one has to experience. Greenville was a pleasant surprise and I hope to be able to return again in the near future. Greenville's downtown is undergoing transformative developments:

• The Gateway Project: Set to redefine Greenville's skyline, this 29-story mixed-use development will become the tallest building in South Carolina upon completion.
• County Square Redevelopment: A $1 billion project transforming a 40-acre site into a vibrant mixed-use community, featuring shopping, dining, entertainment, office, and residential spaces.
• Unity Park: Opened in May 2022, this 60-acre park has become a focal point for community engagement and development, with plans for affordable housing and mixed-use projects in the surrounding areas.

And this is all on the back of the 20+ year re-development of downtown Greenville along Main Street all the way to Reedy Falls. These initiatives underscore Greenville's commitment to thoughtful urban planning and economic growth, attracting both residents and investors.

Conclusion: Strategic Investment in Evolving Markets

The Southeast's real estate landscape is marked by dynamic shifts:

• Atlanta: Investors should focus on high-demand segments in the suburbs while being cautious of challenges in the downtown core.
• Columbia: The industrial sector offers stable returns, bolstered by strategic location and infrastructure.
• Greenville: Downtown revitalization projects present opportunities in mixed-use developments, reflecting a commitment to sustainable growth.

By understanding these trends, capital can make informed decisions, aligning their strategies with the evolving dynamics of the Southeast's real estate markets.

Best regards,
Robert Newstead

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