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Background
Guardrail Finance is both a financial intermediary for multifamily and commercial real estate loans and a Sponsor of real estate equity syndications.
Interest Rates
In today’s commercial real estate environment, the best way to protect your upside isn’t just about owning the right asset. It’s also about getting your capital stack squared away—especially if you have a loan maturing in the next 6–18 months.
Right now, the market is quietly reshaping around debt. If you wait until the last 60-90 days to refinance, the lender range narrows. But if you act early, you can still leverage capital markets.
Let’s break down how to avoid the biggest mistake I see middle-market sponsors make - waiting too long to act.
The State of the Market - Caution Without Crisis
The headlines aren’t exaggerating. Commercial real estate distress is rising, but not evenly.
- CRE delinquencies are at their highest levels since 2014.
- Cap rates are drifting up—multifamily cap rates rose from 5.77% to 5.90% in Q1 2025.
- Over $950B+ in CRE loans mature in 2025 alone.
- Banks are extending maturities to avoid write-downs, while non-bank lenders selectively fill the gaps.
Lenders haven’t shut the door—but they are being choosier. If your asset is stabilized and your track record is strong, you still have options. But here’s the catch - those options shrink with time.
The Hidden Risk of Waiting
I talk with sponsors every week who are sitting on maturing loans and saying, “Let’s wait until we’re closer to maturity to start talking to lenders.”
That mindset made sense in 2021. It doesn’t work as well in 2025.
Why?
Because capital is more persnickety now. The longer you wait:
- The fewer lender options you’ll have
- The more reactive your negotiation becomes
- The less flexibility you’ll have to restructure with equity, mezz, or pref
And if you’ve got a value-add plan in motion or a capex plan, timing is everything. Underbudgeting or slow lease-up can tip you into DSCR issues or force you to raise emergency equity on bad terms.
A Better Approach - Strategic Refinance Positioning
The smartest operators I know aren’t panicking. They’re preparing. Here’s what they’re doing differently:
Starting Early
They're modeling out refinancing 9–12 months in advance. Not to lock it in—but to understand what terms, structure, and leverage are feasible in today’s market.
Engaging the Right Capital
They’re talking to debt funds, credit shops, and insurance lenders, not just banks. Many of these groups are underwriting aggressively for the right sponsors, especially in multifamily and industrial.
Building Optionality Into Their Capital Stack
Rather than go 75% senior debt and pray, they’re layering in:
- Mezzanine debt or preferred equity
- JV equity partners
- Bridge-to-perm strategies with repositioning baked in
Refi in 2025? Here's Your Pre-Game Checklist.
If you have debt maturing in the next 6–18 months, ask yourself:
- Have I re-underwritten the deal with today’s interest rates and cap rates?
- Do I know how much refinance proceeds I can realistically expect—without a surprise haircut?
- Do I have a backup lender or alternative structure in case my go-to lender pulls back?
- Have I started conversations with my capital advisor—or am I hoping for a miracle at the 11th hour?
It’s Not About Raising the Alarm. It’s About Leverage.
This isn’t about fear. It’s about leverage—your ability to create options before you're forced into a corner.
The borrowers with the most flexibility in this market are the ones who prepared early. They didn’t wait for rates to drop or underwriting to loosen. They made a plan, validated their assumptions, and ran a full process with lenders and equity partners.
If You Need It
If you have an asset with debt coming due, and you’re not sure what today’s capital stack should look like—I’m happy to talk.
No pressure. Just a conversation about:
- What’s available in the market right now
- How to structure the debt and equity to give you flexibility
- And what execution certainty will look like heading into 2026
Let me know if I can help. Email me at robert@guardrailfinance.com to start the conversation and explore upcoming financing opportunities.
Best Regards,
Robert Newstead
Guardrail Finance
Capital advisory for the middle-market | Debt & Equity | Real Estate Syndications
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